SUPER DELEGATES, IN A COMIC SOAP OPERA
MORNING FLINT! Early edition
BY Terry Bankert 3/24/08
http://attorneybankert.com/
You are invited to join me at Face Book http://www.facebook.com/people/Terry_Bankert/645845362 ___________________________
Full article at http://goodmorningflint.blogspot.com/
SUMMARY ON Flint Talk http://flinttalk.com/viewtopic.php?p=26445#26445 _____
THE PLOT THICKENS Readers of a certain age might remember the hit American television show Dynasty. It was originally conceived of as a rival to Dallas, with all those Texan oilmen types, but fast established itself as the most lavish and ludicrous of soap operas. The plot operated around Blake (John Forsythe), his wife Krystle (Linda Evans) and his former bride Alexis (Joan Collins) and others who constituted the rival Carrington and Colby families. [t]
SPELLBINDING GREAT ENTERTAINMENT BUT NO WAY TO PICK A PRESIDENT!
It had Americans under its spell in the mid 1980s, but the combination of ever more insane storylines and endless pay disputes among its performers undermined it. Eventually the plug was pulled in 1989 with a cliffhanger tale in which the stars were imperilled but viewers never found out what happened to them. [t]
DENVER THEN AND NOW
Dynasty was set in Denver, Colorado. By appropriate coincidence, the Democratic national convention will occur in the same city in late August. [t]
The party is now under intense pressure to forge a solution that backers of both Senator Clinton and Barack Obama see as fair. "The real danger is a 1968 convention for the Democrats, where people felt cheated," says Ronald Rapoport, a political scientist at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va., alluding to one of recent history's most divisive and damaging conventions. [c]
OUR GRANDCHILDREN WILL NOT BELIEVE THIS STORY
It is already evident that the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will match anything created by fiction. Yet as the next few weeks will demonstrate, their competition will soon make Dynasty look like gritty social realism.[t]
FIRE ON THE HORIZON
This is a battle destined to become both extremely close and exceptionally combustible. It is hard to believe that Democrats will benefit from it. [t]
DO THE MATH.
Pledges (common democrats) plus Supers (elite Democrats) =nominee. The situation today is as follows. It takes 2,025 delegates to secure a majority and with it victory. About 80 per cent of these Democratic stalwarts will be chosen by voters through primaries and caucuses (“pledged delegates”), the remaining 20 per cent are party leaders of various sorts (“super delegates”). [t]
COMMON DEMOCRATS WANT OBAMA,...SO FAR.
As of now, Mr Obama has won 1,414 pledged delegates to Mrs Clinton’s 1,246, which looks like an imposing lead. [t] In the states that chose their representatives by primaries (open ballots, much like local or general elections here), though, they are almost even. Mr Obama has a clear lead because of his success in caucuses (formal meetings in which the turnout is far lower than primaries and dominated by the most dedicated activists), which are arguably less legitimate indications of general support.[t]
MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA ARE HELPING CLINTON,....NOT
Furthermore, two big states – Florida and Michigan – held primaries (in which Mrs Clinton did best) but have been barred from participating in the convention because they held them earlier than they had been instructed.[t]
With Obama's nearly insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, a revote in Florida and Michigan – or a recognition of the January results – was viewed as Clinton's best chance to narrow the gap and persuade superdelegates of a popular mandate for her candidacy.[c]
THIS IS CLEAR AS MUD
If this all sounds murky, it is about to become much, much worse. There are still a number of ballots to be held. The first is in Pennsylvania, which Mrs Clinton must, and probably will, win. Her rival then has a decent chance to hit back in North Carolina on May 6, where a large proportion of the electorate are African-Americans. Most of the remaining states (Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota) are likely to be inclined towards Mrs Clinton. [t]
Theoretically, there are two forums where the dispute could be resolved: inside the Democratic Party, first in the Credentials Committee and ultimately at the Convention; or in the courts.[f]
WILL IT BE DOOR #1, #2 OR #3?
Such an outcome would result in three intriguing consequences.[t]
#1 MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA MESSED THIS UP
The first is that there could almost be a tie over the number of pledged delegates. Mr Obama, thanks to the proportional representation rules his party uses, will probably have the greatest number in straightforward terms, but will be behind among those secured in primaries, rather than caucuses. Mrs Clinton would also be able to assert that, if the votes cast in Florida and Michigan were included, then she would be the stronger. In that case she would have finished more impressively than her opponent. [t]
#2 THE SUPERS HAVE A MORAL OBLIGATION TO DECIDE FOR US, THE RACE IS NOT OVER UNTIL THE xxx LADY SINGS.
Secondly, the nomination will have to be settled by the super delegates. There are almost 800 of these and more than 300 have still to state their position. Not that it would matter if they had done so, because super delegates are allowed to change their minds right up until the official count at the convention. That being so, even if either Mr Obama or Mrs Clinton were to calculate that they were in second place when the very last primary had been completed in early June, they would have no good reason to abandon their campaigns. [t]
Why not hang on and see if events were to turn up another version of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the pastor who has embarrassed Senator Obama recently, or produce an issue that could be exploited? In a further quirk, the convention is being held later than usual because the Democrats decided that it would “maximise momentum” to defer it. [t]
Mark Penn, her chief strategist, says the campaign will look beyond hard numbers in making its case to the some 300 superdelegates, or party leaders, who remain uncommitted. "It's not a question of a cut and dried calculation at this point," he told reporters on a conference call Friday. The campaign hopes superdelegates will also consider "who they believe can win the general election" and who is better "for the good of the country and the good of the party." [c]
But the Clintons won’t be muzzled and are fighting for their political lives. They obviously don’t care if their vicious attempt to win their nomination battle may end up costing the party the war.[N]
#3 VERY LITTLE TIME TO CLEAN THE MESS UP BEFORE THE ELECTION IN NOVEMBER.
Which means, thirdly, that it may be a convention like no other in recent decades. These occasions are normally totally controlled by the presumptive nominee and orchestrated to suit him (or her). They decide who will make the big speeches, impose the policies to be adopted, and the delegates confirm a vice-presidential selection that the candidate has announced to the world a while earlier. The convention is thus simply a vast rally. [t]
FIFTY DELEGATES MAY DECIDE WHO THE NOMINEE IS
That cannot occur if it is uncertain who the champion will be. The party itself will have to run the convention in close, if tense, consultation with the two contenders. The policy details will become a proxy for the fight between the Clinton and Obama camps. No vice-presidential name can be put forward until the top of the ticket is determined. It is entirely possible that the nomination will be awarded on the basis of a margin of as few as 50 delegates, or fewer, out of more than 4,000 present. [t]
THOSE ELITE ENTITLED SUPER DELEGATES MAY DECIDE,PRIVATELY
The super delegates might overrule the pledged delegates, as they are entitled to, attracting intense controversy. [t]
HILLARY MAY BE LOSING THE SUPER DELEGATES SHE HAS SPENT A LIFE TIME CULTIVATING. HERE’S WHY.
The Hillary and Bill Clinton scorched-earth strategy of laying waste to Obama, or his supporters like Bill Richardson, is going to backfire among those in the only constituency who can put Hillary in the saddle. The super delegates.[N]
These people are professional politicians, officials and operatives who are horrified that the Clintons et Co. are producing negative soundbytes which will become fodder for the McCain side come the real contest in the fall. But this should come as no surprise .[N]
AFTER CONVENTION 8 WEEKS TO ELECTION
A bitterly divided party would then have about two months to bind its wounds before polling day in November.[t]
THE REPUBLICANS WILL LAUGH ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK, AGAIN.
Meanwhile, a few days later, the Republican convention will open in Minneapolis, a model of love, peace and unity compared with the Democratic showdown. [t]
MCAIN A BUSH SUPPORTING WAR MONGERING ,ECONOMY DEVASTOR, HAS BEEN, COULD WIN BECAUSE OF WHAT THE DEMOCRATS DO THEMSELVES
In one of the more crackpot Dynasty plotlines, Blake and Alexis end up running against each other for public office (the post of Governor of Colorado) but their expensive feud serves only to allow another candidate to emerge triumphant. John McCain has reason to hope that Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton are poised to do exactly the same, to his advantage. [t]
That leaves Democrats without delegates for the August national convention, the prospect of disillusioned voters — and an opening for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, in a state that has not gone Republican since 1988.[h]
"It's not breaking my heart," said Kent County GOP Chairman Dave Dishaw. "From a John McCain perspective, obviously I'm very excited that they can't get their act together."[h] Jeff Williams, a senior vice president with Public Sector Consultants in Lansing, said it would be premature to assume all this chaos means the GOP will win Michigan. He believes the advantage still is with the Democrats.[h] But he agrees McCain's image as a political maverick could help him win independents. His chances improve each week and month the Democrats fail to find a candidate, he believes.[h]
WOULD A REAL NON CANDIDATE LEADER STEP FORWARD, BUILD A COALITION AND GET THIS RIGHT....OUR FUTURE DEPENDS ON IT...AL GORE WHERE THE HADIES ARE YOU?
Meanwhile, party leaders in Florida and Michigan are adamant that their delegations be seated according to the popular vote. "I am deeply disappointed," Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm said in a statement after talks collapsed for a state-run, privately funded primary on June 3. "Now that the Legislature has decided not to act, we will turn our attention to other options." [c]
A ROUGH END GAME WILL BACK FIRE AND GIVE OBAMA THE NOMINATION
Short of a Hail Mary Pass, the Clintons are digging themselves an early, and permanent, party grave. More super delegates are going to follow Richardson’s lead even if Hillary pulls off Pennsylvania on April 22.[N]
National polls, after a rough week for Obama, have them tied and he is gaining again at her expense. But Obama has 730,000 more votes and 131 more super delegates than her and has it bagged even if she wins everything else in huge numbers.[N]
BUT WITH THIS DAMAGE CAN WE WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION
Posted here by Terry Bankert ... http://attorneybankert.com/
Join my political party of preference, http://www.michigandems.com/join.html
—WHERE DID THIS STUFF COME FROM---
[t] The Timesonline http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/tim_hames/article3607493.ece?openComment=true
[TRB] Comments of Terry Bankert and CAP headline unattributed. http://attorneybankert.com/
[F] The Fox Network http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,340792,00.html
[c] The Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0324/p03s03-uspo.html [h] Houston Chronicle.com http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/nation/5639458.html
[n] The National Post http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2008/03/23/mccain-s-preachers-scary-too.aspx
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